Editorial Comment by Geoff Crittenden, CEO, Weld Australia
The decision by the Liberal Party to formally abandon Australia’s commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050 should concern every Australian. Beyond the politics, it highlights a deeper problem: our national debate around energy, emissions and climate has become unanchored from facts, science and economic reality.
The phrase net zero is tossed around almost daily, yet very few people seem to understand what it actually means.
It is time to strip away the spin and get clear about the fundamentals.
What Net Zero Actually Means
Net zero is not a slogan. It is not a vague vision for “going green”. And it certainly does not mean eliminating every last tonne of carbon emissions.
Net zero simply means balancing the amount of greenhouse gas we emit with the amount we remove from the atmosphere. If Australia emits 450 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent today, we must remove 450 million tonnes to be net zero.
Of course, the goal is to shrink that 450-million-tonne figure as far as technologically possible (down to perhaps 100 million tonnes) without destroying the industries that underpin our economy. But whatever emissions remain must be counterbalanced through sequestration: soils, forests, technological capture, or other verified removal methods.
Net zero is a pragmatic target grounded in physics, not ideology. Nations across the world have recognised that failing to achieve it will be vastly more expensive than the transition required to get there.
The Myths That Are Derailing Australia
Myth 1: We need more gas to keep the lights on
This is perhaps the most persistent, and the most misleading, claim in Australian energy politics. Gas-fired generators supply just 17% of Australia’s electricity, less than half the contribution of rooftop solar, which now delivers around 34% on some networks.
Despite endless claims from lobbyists, only one new gas-fired power station has been commissioned in the past five years. Why? Because the economics simply do not stack up. Gas is too expensive to serve as a transition fuel. Its role in firming the grid is shrinking, not expanding.
And crucially, as The Australia Institute has shown, 83% of all gas extracted in Australia is not used by Australians at all. It is exported.
Myth 2: Australia is running out of gas
The idea of a domestic gas shortage is pure fiction. In just five years, Australia has exported 22 years’ worth of domestic gas demand. The LNG export industry uses:
- 9 times more gas than our electricity sector
- 13 times more than manufacturing
- 30 times more than Australian households
There is no shortage. There is only an export industry that has been allowed to cannibalise Australia’s energy security.
Myth 3: High energy prices are unavoidable
Domestic gas prices are high because they are tied to the international spot market; a market designed to maximise exporter profits, not protect Australian industry. Australians now pay four to seven times more for gas than consumers in the US, Russia, Qatar or Canada.
Wholesale gas prices in Australia are closer to those of major importers like Japan and China than to fellow exporters. That is an absurd situation for a nation that is the world’s second-largest exporter of LNG.
Worse still, high gas prices translate directly into higher electricity prices, even though gas supplies only a sliver of our power. This system is irrational, economically damaging, and entirely fixable.
The Real Consequences: Industry Decline and Sovereign Risk
Manufacturing is already under extreme pressure. High gas and electricity prices inflate the costs of essential goods from steel to water heaters. This is a huge burden on industry and a substantial additional impost on Australian families.
We risk losing sovereign capability in industries vital to national security (like shipbuilding, defence, manufacturing, and fabrication) because of energy policies that favour foreign-owned fossil fuel companies over Australian businesses and households.
This is not abstract. It is happening now.
The Path to Net Zero: Clear, Achievable, Economically Sensible
- Decouple domestic gas prices from the international spot market. There is no reason Australians should be paying importer-level prices for Australian gas. Gas reservation, domestic pricing mechanisms and export controls are implemented by every major resource-exporting nation except us.
- Decouple electricity prices from gas. Allowing 13% of generation (gas) to set the price for 100% of electricity is indefensible. Technology-neutral reform and strategic investment in storage will break this distortion.
- Accelerate renewables and firming, fast. Wind, large-scale solar, rooftop solar and batteries are booming despite policy uncertainty. With bipartisan support, Australia could not only decarbonise rapidly but become a global renewable energy superpower.
- Establish a bipartisan National Energy Strategy. Since the mid-1990s, Australia has lurched between policies, reversals and ideological battles. Energy markets need certainty. Investors need clarity. Industry needs predictability. A bipartisan strategy is the only path to that stability.
- Ensure Australians benefit from Australian resources. Qatar earns around $50 billion per year in taxes and royalties on gas exports. Australia earns around $1.6 billion on roughly the same exported volume.
This is not a technical problem. It is a political choice.
We Must Lead Because There Is No Alternative
Australia is blessed with abundant renewable resources: the best solar on Earth, outstanding wind capacity, and world-class engineering capability. We have everything we need to thrive in a low-carbon global economy. But that future will not arrive by accident. As I have said before: we cannot keep doing something stupid over and over again simply because it is familiar.
The world is moving. China—the world’s largest consumer of coal—is decarbonising faster than any other major economy.
South Korea, one of Australia’s largest export partners and a major purchaser of LNG, is also rapidly reshaping its energy landscape. Korea has committed to slashing gas consumption as part of its 2050 carbon-neutral strategy, significantly increasing investment in renewables, battery storage and hydrogen. This transition carries major implications for Australia: as Korea reduces dependence on imported gas, Australia’s LNG export model faces structural decline.
Just as China is accelerating away from coal, Korea’s shift away from gas underscores the global reality: demand for fossil fuel imports is shrinking, not growing. Whether or not Australia chooses to sell coal or gas in the future, our customers are accelerating towards zero-carbon alternatives. We can either lead that transition or be left behind.
The Case for ‘Real Zero’
While much of Australia continues to debate the merits and mechanics of net zero, some of our most influential industrial leaders are already moving beyond it. Andrew ‘Twiggy’ Forrest, through Fortescue, is pursuing what he calls “real zero”; not the balancing act of net-zero accounting, but the complete elimination of fossil fuels from operations.
Instead of relying on offsets, Forrest has committed Fortescue to removing fossil fuels from all land‑based operations by 2030. The company has launched a $6.2 billion capital investment program to decarbonise its primary mining activities in the Pilbara, funding everything from large‑scale renewable generation to battery storage and fleet electrification.
Forrest’s position is simple: the economics stack up. “Real zero is completely bankable,” he has said. And his approach demonstrates what Australia’s decarbonisation pathway could look like when industry is supported, not hindered, by coherent policy.
Time for Courage and Clarity
Net zero by 2050 is not radical. It is not ideological. It is the bare minimum required to maintain Australia’s economic prosperity and environmental stability. Abandoning it would not only undermine international confidence in Australia. It would harm households, cripple industry and weaken our national security.
Achieving net zero—or, even better, actual zero—will require political courage, policy clarity, honest public discussion and a refusal to bow to fossil-fuel misinformation.
Australia must not walk away from net zero. We must embrace it, and lead.